As of October 2023, the xrp price usd was quoted at around $0.50, rising by 51% from the year’s low of $0.33, but still having a 14% recovery space from the April high of $0.58. The current market’s buying and selling decisions on XRP need to be evaluated comprehensively based on multiple factors such as regulation, technology, on-chain data, and the macro environment. From the perspective of regulatory risks, the SEC v. Ripple case in the United States (case No. 20-CV-10832) remains the biggest variable – in July 2023, the Southern District Court of New York ruled that XRP’s “procedural sale” does not constitute a security, driving its price to surge by 75% in a single day to $0.82 (Data source:) CoinMarketCap), but if the SEC’s appeal at the key hearing in November is successful, the xrp price usd may pull back to $0.35 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Bloomberg analysts believe that the probability of a complete settlement of the case is about 35%, at which point the price may hit $0.90, but the legal process may continue until 2024.
Technical indicators show a divergence in short-term momentum. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) of xrp price usd is currently 58 (data source: TradingView), and has not yet entered the overbought zone (above 70). However, the MACD histogram in October shows the first “golden cross” signal of 2023. Historical data indicates that after a similar pattern, the average increase over 30 days reached 22%. The key support level is at $0.48 (50-day moving average), and the resistance level is at $0.55 (September high). A breakout could trigger the liquidation of $120 million of short contracts (Source: CoinGlass). It is worth noting that CoinGecko statistics show that the volatility of XRP (30-day standard deviation) is 8.3%, which is higher than that of Bitcoin (4.1%) and Ethereum (5.7%), indicating a significant high-risk attribute.
On-chain data reveals that the game among large holders has intensified. Santiment’s monitoring shows that the number of addresses holding 1 to 10 million XRP has increased by 9% in the past 30 days. However, during the same period, such “whales” net transferred 240 million XRP (about 120 million US dollars) into the exchange, accounting for 0.45% of the total circulation. The IntoTheBlock model estimates that 68% of token holders have a cost higher than the current price. If the xrp price usd rebounds to $0.60, it will face selling pressure of 19 billion tokens (accounting for 35% of the circulating supply). In addition, the proportion of XRP reserves on the exchange is 18%. If it drops below 15% (the bull market level in 2021), it may ease the selling pressure.
Market sentiment and competitive landscape influence the diversion of funds. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index (45 in October) indicates neutral sentiment, but the social media discussion volume of XRP rose by 40% week-on-week, with positive sentiment accounting for 62% (data tool: LunarCrush). In a horizontal comparison, XRP’s year-to-date increase of 55% is far lower than that of Solana (+210%) and Avalanche (+85%), indicating a significant effect of capital diversion. If the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF drives the overall market up by 20%, the xrp price usd may follow suit and rise to $0.65 (beta coefficient 0.8), but it needs to break through $0.55 to activate FOMO buying.
Ecological progress provides limited support. Ripple’s ODL cross-border payment network processed a transaction volume of 15 billion US dollars in Q3 2023 (up 35% year-on-year), but it was only 1.2% of Visa’s average daily transaction volume of 42 billion US dollars during the same period. The daily active addresses on the XRP chain are approximately 250,000, which is less than 63% of that on Ethereum (400,000). The activity of the ecosystem restricts the increase in valuation. Bloomberg reported that if Ripple launches its IPO in 2024, it could bring a 20% premium. However, considering Coinbase’s listing cycle (11 months for SEC review), the probability of its landing within the year is less than 15%.
Macroeconomic risks have intensified fluctuations. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to 4.8% (the highest since 2007), suppressing the valuation of risky assets. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again within the year, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies may shrink by 15%-20%, dragging down the xrp price usd below the support level of $0.40. Chainalysis data shows that the top 10 addresses hold 45% of the liquidity. Selling 1% of their positions ina single day can lead to an 8% price drop, highlighting the risk of centralization.
At the operational level, it is recommended to build positions in stages: If you buy at the current price (0.50 US dollars), set the stop-loss at 0.42 US dollars (the 200-day moving average) and the target at 0.75 US dollars (the resistance level within the year), with a risk-reward ratio of 1:2.5. If the price breaks through $0.55, you can add 30% of the position. When using leveraged derivatives, the margin rate must be controlled at ≥50%. It should be noted that TradingView statistics show that the 30-day price correlation between XRP and Bitcoin is 0.72. If BTC drops below $25,000, XRP may fall by 18% to 22% simultaneously.
